Emily’s Crime Watch – Tip #27 (Prediction)

An important factor in crime prevention is prediction. What does it really mean to you? How can you predict if you’re going to be a crime victim or not? How do you stay calm and objective? Can you actually take the fear out of the situation in order to see it more objectively?

According to Gavin De Becker author of The Gift of Fear, there are eleven predictions that are outlined in his book. These are interesting and thought-provoking concepts that everyone should take the time to consider in relating to crime and prediction, or even other personal situations.

1. Measurability of Outcome

What are your fears of the actual outcome in a certain situation? Do you see something terrible happening or do you think it’s a slight chance of happening? Predictions are less likely to happen if it’s easily measurable.

2. Vantage

It is a position that you can easily see the potential outcome. You can see the potential pre-incident indicators and context.

3. Imminence

From your view, are you predicting something that can happen immediately? According the author, some of our best predictive resources are applied when outcomes might occur as they are still meaningful to us.

4. Context

The situation is clear to the person making the predictions.

5. Pre-Incident Indicators

Learning to see the pre-incident indicators is the most important when dealing with prediction. Being in the position to see subtle or direct signs of potential dangers are significant in prediction.

6. Experience

Life experiences help with many things, including danger and prediction. Learn to use this wonderful skill.

7. Comparable Events

Can you consider or compare comparable events? This is also extremely important and co-mingles with experience.

8. Objectivity

This concept refers to staying objective enough to consider both sides of a prediction. In making a simple decision, there are several things to consider in any given situation. It’s important to be aware and objective during this time of prediction.

9. Investment

How invested are you in the predictive outcome? How much do you care about avoiding or exploiting the predictive outcome? Keep in mind that if you want the prediction to be correct or not.

10. Replicability

Is this a practical test that has been tested elsewhere? This applies to scientific experiments and not necessarily to human behavior. Still, it’s something to consider.

11. Knowledge

Do you have accurate knowledge of the prediction and situation? According to the author, if it’s not relevant and accurate then it can masquerade as wisdom instead.

When it comes to any potential crime situation, be aware, be objective, have a plan, and don’t let fear control your actions.

Check out this wonderful book:

The Gift of Fear
AND Other Survival Signals That Protect Us From Violence
By Gavin De Becker



Jennifer Chase
Award Winning Author & Criminologist

Blog: http://authorjenniferchase.blogspot.com/
Website: http://jenniferchase.vpweb.com/
Crime Watch: http://emilystonecrimewatch.blogspot.com/
Book & Crime Talk: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/jennifer-chase

Emily’s Crime Watch – Tip #26 (Family & Pets)

Winter is a time of year that we need to be careful and prepare simple safety tips. This year has been a particularly cold winter in so many places. Here are a few tips to keep in mind.

Prepare your home and family:

• Review and update your family emergency plan. This is a great time to replenish your emergency supply kits, batteries, and emergency information.
• Have extra blankets on hand.
• Winterize your home, barn, and any other structures that provide shelter for your family, livestock, pets, or equipment.
• Have a sufficient supply of heating fuel.
• Insulate pipes and allow faucets to drip during the cold weather to avoid freezing.·
• Learn how to shut off water valves in case the pipes burst.
• Move plants inside or cover with frost coverings or blankets.
• Keep fire extinguishers full and on hand and make sure everyone in the house knows how to use them.
• DO NOT bring heating devices into the house that are intended for outdoor use. They can quickly produce carbon monoxide.

Prepare your pets:

• Keep cats indoors during the cold weather. Sometimes outdoor cats can sleep under the hoods of cars during the cold weather. Be sure to check or tap on the hood before getting into your vehicle.
• Don’t let your dog off leash on snow or ice (especially during a snow storm) – they can lose their sense of smell and this risks a chance of injury or they can become lost. Make sure you have ID tags on them.
• Be sure to thoroughly wipe off their stomachs and legs after coming in from the snow. There can be dangerous substances like antifreeze that has become encrusted in ice.
• Don’t shave your dog in winter.
• Never leave your dog or cat alone in the car during cold weather. A car can be like a refrigerator.
• Make sure your faithful companion has a warm place to sleep with a cozy bed, warm blanket, or pillow.
  
  

Recognizing symptoms of exposure, seek medical attention if:

• Confusion, dizziness, exhaustion and shivering are signs of hypothermia.
• Gray, white, or yellow skin discoloration, numbness, or waxy skins are symptoms of frostbite.
• In case of overexposure to freezing temperatures, remove wet clothing and immediately warm the body with a blanket or warm fluids. Avoid caffeine or alcohol.
  
  
  

Jennifer Chase
Award Winning Author & Criminologist

Blog: http://authorjenniferchase.blogspot.com/
Website: http://jenniferchase.vpweb.com/
Crime Watch: http://emilystonecrimewatch.blogspot.com/
Book & Crime Talk: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/jennifer-chase

Award Winning Author and Criminologist Jennifer Chase - Author Appearance & Book Signing

I'm going to be signing books at Borders Books in Sand City (Monterey area), CA on Saturday, January 15th, 2011. Stop by and say hello if you can. I will be heading out for an early dinner in Monterey afterwards. Join me!

Looking forward to meeting you all,

Jennifer


Where: Borders Books
When: Saturday, January 15th 2011
Time: 2:00 pm to 4:00 pm

Borders Books
2080 California Avenue
Sand City, CA 93955
(831) 899-6643

Emily’s Crime Watch – Tip #25 (Home Safety)

The one place that everyone should feel safe is at home.

Sometimes, we forget that when we’re in the safety of our home to keep vigilant and alert, especially when we are coming or going. This festive time of year with the holidays, everyone should be even more aware of what’s going on around them.

Ladies, here are some important safety precautions to remember at home. However, everyone should be aware of these tips too.

1. Always have your key ready before you get to your front door and pay attention to what’s around you.

2. Keep ALL windows and doors locked at all times when you’re away from your residence no matter what the temperature is outside.

3. Keep your front entrance area well lit, replace light bulbs regularly, and make sure that fixtures are in good working order. If possible, have motion lights installed in addition to the regular outside lights.

4. If you arrive home and find your front door open: DO NOT GO INSIDE, call the police immediately from your cell phone, neighbor’s house, or pay phone.

5. If you live in an apartment, list only your last name and first initial on your mailbox.

6. Don’t buzz someone in to your building or apartment complex unless you know them.

7. The same goes for holding the door open for someone that you don’t know that has been waiting. Don’t let anyone into your building or apartment complex that you don’t know.

8. If a stranger needs to use your phone in an emergency, keep them out, and offer to make the call for them.

9. If you ever have ANY doubt or feel threatened in any way, call the police. Report anything that seems suspicious to the police immediately.

These are just a few important safety precautions to remember when you’re at home, especially when you’re alone. Everyone should always feel safe and secure inside their own home.

Have a wonderful, joyous, and safe holiday season!


Jennifer Chase
Award Winning Author & Criminologist
Blog: http://authorjenniferchase.blogspot.com/
Website: http://jenniferchase.vpweb.com/
Crime Watch: http://emilystonecrimewatch.blogspot.com/
Book & Crime Talk: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/jennifer-chase

Novels By Author Jennifer Chase:

"Compulsion" - Part of the Emily Stone Series (Thriller)
"Award Winning Dead Game" -Part of the Emily Stone Series (Thriller)

Newly released "Silent Partner" (Cop Thriller)

All books are available both in paperback and kindle format!

Emily Stone's crime Watch Tip #24 - Holiday Safety

It’s the holiday time again!

This is the time where many of us are busy, with not only everyday things, but with shopping, holiday decorating, parties, and much more. This is also the time where we need to be careful in protecting our families and homes from burglaries, identity theft, and assault.

The holidays are a time where potential criminals use it to their advantage because often times we are distracted and not staying vigilant.

Here are a few simple reminders for home and shopping safety during the holiday season.

Home safety:

1. Be extra cautious about locking ALL windows and doors when you leave the house, even if you’re gone for only a few minutes. Also, make sure that your windows and doors are properly bolted (updated) for added security.

2. Be careful of large displays of holiday gifts visible through windows and doors of your home. This can be too tempting for “would be” burglars.

3. If you’re leaving your home for any extended length of time, have a neighbor, friend, or family member keep an eye on your home and pick up newspapers and mail.

4. Have indoor and outdoor lights on an automatic timer.

5. If possible, leave a radio or television on to give the appearance of an occupied home.

Shopping Safety:

1. Try to do your holiday shopping during daylight hours, if possible. If you have to shop at night, go with a friend or family member.

2. Dress comfortably and casually, and avoid wearing expensive jewelry.

3. Try NOT to carry a purse or wallet, if possible. Always carry your driver’s license or ID card, checks or credit cards that you plan on using for your shopping excursion. Try to keep these items in a front pocket.

4. Avoid carrying large amounts of cash. Try to pay for purchases with a check or credit card whenever possible.

5. If your credit card(s) are lost or stolen, notify the credit card issuer immediately. Also, if it has been stolen, notify the police and file a report. Make sure to keep a record of ALL your credit card numbers in a safe place at home.

6. ALWAYS stay alert to your surroundings day or night.

7. Avoid overloading yourself with packages. Make sure that you have a clear visibility and are able to move around freely.

8. Keep packages out of plain view in your car. Try to put them in the trunk or out of plain sight.

9. Beware of strangers approaching you for ANY reason. This time of year where there are many “con artists” that will try to distract your attention to take your belongings or money.

Most of all, have a wonderful holiday season with family and friends.

Check out ALL of Emily’s Crime Watch Tips:
www.emilystonecrimewatch.blogspot.com

Jennifer Chase
Award Winning Author & Criminologist

Blog: www.authorjenniferchase.blogspot.com
Crime Watch: www.emilystonecrimewatch.blogspot.com
Book & Crime Talk: www.blogtalkradio.com/jennifer-chase
Website: www.jenniferchase.vpweb.com

Emily Stone's Crime Watch Tip 23 - Neighborhood Watch

One of the most common questions that Emily receives is about neighborhood watch. Many people want to know how to start one. This is a great question. I think many will be surprised how easy and fun it is to start a neighborhood watch.

First, check out a great website about getting started. It will give you an overview and some things to think about. www.USAOnWatch.org

• Determine the area you want to organize (the larger the better).
• Talk to surrounding neighbors and find out how many want to assist and participate (8-10 households is a good number).
• Set up a free neighborhood watch website to coordinate your efforts.
  

Here are five basic steps to get you started and motivated:

1. Contact your local police/sheriff’s department to schedule speakers for your neighborhood watch group. Make sure you pick a location to accommodate your group and presentation (grange, hall, school, etc.).
2. Invite your neighbors. Get a name, phone number, and email list. Send out flyers about two to three weeks before your presentation meeting and then follow up with a “reminder” a couple of days before.
3. Prepare a neighborhood map. This map should have the houses, names, and phone numbers of each household.
4. Benefits of the presentation. You will learn how to develop a plan of action, crime prevention techniques, personal safety, how to report suspicious activity, meet your neighbors and develop a strong communication network, order neighborhood watch signs, and recruit your coordinator and block captains.
5. Maintaining your neighborhood watch plan. Keep your plan on track with meetings, neighborhood outings, and a monthly newsletter, website or blog.

Jennifer Chase
Award Winning Author & Criminologist

Blog: www.authorjenniferchase.blogspot.com
Website: www.jenniferchase.vpweb.com
Crime Watch: www.emilystonecrimewatch.blogspot.com
Book & Crime Talk: www.blogtalkradio.com/jennifer-chase

Emily’s Crime Watch – Tip #22 (Winter Safety)

It’s getting to be that time of year again – yes, I mean winter. There are some places that have more of a severe winter than others, but everyone can benefit from a few safety tips for the upcoming season.

Fireplace Safety

• Always use seasoned wood to help reduce creosote build up in your chimney. Creosote is highly combustible and can cause a chimney fire.
• Fireplace chimneys should be inspected and cleaned annually.
• NEVER use flammables or combustibles to start fires in your fireplace.
• ALWAYS dispose of fireplace ashes in a metal container and store them away from the house for at least seven days.
  

Carbon Monoxide Safety

• Carbon Monoxide (CO) poisoning can be difficult at times to distinguish between having a cold or flu. If undetected, high levels in the home can cause severe illness or death. INSTALL an approved Carbon Monoxide (CO) detector within ten feet of every bedroom or sleeping area. This is a law in many states.
• Check your Carbon Monoxide (CO) and smoke detectors seasonally or during the daylight savings times.
• Make sure all fuel-burning appliances are installed properly and working according to manufacture’s guidelines.
• Have combustion appliances inspected every year.
• Install an exhaust fan, vented to outside over any gas stove.
• Never use your cooking stove to heat your home.
• Don’t sleep in any room with an unvented gas or kerosene space heater.
  

Winter Driving Safety

• Clear and defrost windows completely before driving.
• Consider new tires. Tire tread can improve acceleration, braking, and handling.
• Remember overpasses, ramps, and bridges will freeze before the roadway. Drive with caution.
• Slow down! Decreasing speed will increase your handling ability and give you an opportunity to avoid most accidents.
  
  

Enjoy your winter activities! Have a safe and fun holiday season.



Jennifer Chase
Award Winning Author & Criminologist

Blog: http://authorjenniferchase.blogspot.com/
Website: http://jenniferchase.vpweb.com/
Crime Watch: http://emilystonecrimewatch.blogspot.com/
Book & Crime Talk: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/jennifer-chase