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Saturday, January 22, 2011

Emily’s Crime Watch – Tip #27 (Prediction)


An important factor in crime prevention is prediction. What does it really mean to you? How can you predict if you’re going to be a crime victim or not? How do you stay calm and objective? Can you actually take the fear out of the situation in order to see it more objectively?

According to Gavin De Becker author of The Gift of Fear, there are eleven predictions that are outlined in his book. These are interesting and thought-provoking concepts that everyone should take the time to consider in relating to crime and prediction, or even other personal situations.

1. Measurability of Outcome

What are your fears of the actual outcome in a certain situation? Do you see something terrible happening or do you think it’s a slight chance of happening? Predictions are less likely to happen if it’s easily measurable.

2. Vantage

It is a position that you can easily see the potential outcome. You can see the potential pre-incident indicators and context.

3. Imminence

From your view, are you predicting something that can happen immediately? According the author, some of our best predictive resources are applied when outcomes might occur as they are still meaningful to us.

4. Context

The situation is clear to the person making the predictions.

5. Pre-Incident Indicators

Learning to see the pre-incident indicators is the most important when dealing with prediction. Being in the position to see subtle or direct signs of potential dangers are significant in prediction.

6. Experience

Life experiences help with many things, including danger and prediction. Learn to use this wonderful skill.

7. Comparable Events

Can you consider or compare comparable events? This is also extremely important and co-mingles with experience.

8. Objectivity

This concept refers to staying objective enough to consider both sides of a prediction. In making a simple decision, there are several things to consider in any given situation. It’s important to be aware and objective during this time of prediction.

9. Investment

How invested are you in the predictive outcome? How much do you care about avoiding or exploiting the predictive outcome? Keep in mind that if you want the prediction to be correct or not.

10. Replicability

Is this a practical test that has been tested elsewhere? This applies to scientific experiments and not necessarily to human behavior. Still, it’s something to consider.

11. Knowledge

Do you have accurate knowledge of the prediction and situation? According to the author, if it’s not relevant and accurate then it can masquerade as wisdom instead.

When it comes to any potential crime situation, be aware, be objective, have a plan, and don’t let fear control your actions.

Check out this wonderful book:

The Gift of Fear
AND Other Survival Signals That Protect Us From Violence
By Gavin De Becker



Jennifer Chase
Award Winning Author & Criminologist

Blog: http://authorjenniferchase.blogspot.com/
Website:
http://jenniferchase.vpweb.com/
Crime Watch:
http://emilystonecrimewatch.blogspot.com/
Book & Crime Talk: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/jennifer-chase

Friday, January 7, 2011

Emily’s Crime Watch – Tip #26 (Family & Pets)




Winter is a time of year that we need to be careful and prepare simple safety tips. This year has been a particularly cold winter in so many places. Here are a few tips to keep in mind.

Prepare your home and family:


  • Review and update your family emergency plan. This is a great time to replenish your emergency supply kits, batteries, and emergency information.
  • Have extra blankets on hand.
  • Winterize your home, barn, and any other structures that provide shelter for your family, livestock, pets, or equipment.
  • Have a sufficient supply of heating fuel.
  • Insulate pipes and allow faucets to drip during the cold weather to avoid freezing.·
  • Learn how to shut off water valves in case the pipes burst.
  • Move plants inside or cover with frost coverings or blankets.
  • Keep fire extinguishers full and on hand and make sure everyone in the house knows how to use them.
  • DO NOT bring heating devices into the house that are intended for outdoor use. They can quickly produce carbon monoxide.



Prepare your pets:

  • Keep cats indoors during the cold weather. Sometimes outdoor cats can sleep under the hoods of cars during the cold weather. Be sure to check or tap on the hood before getting into your vehicle.
  • Don’t let your dog off leash on snow or ice (especially during a snow storm) – they can lose their sense of smell and this risks a chance of injury or they can become lost. Make sure you have ID tags on them.
  • Be sure to thoroughly wipe off their stomachs and legs after coming in from the snow. There can be dangerous substances like antifreeze that has become encrusted in ice.
  • Don’t shave your dog in winter.
  • Never leave your dog or cat alone in the car during cold weather. A car can be like a refrigerator.
  • Make sure your faithful companion has a warm place to sleep with a cozy bed, warm blanket, or pillow.

Recognizing symptoms of exposure, seek medical attention if:

  • Confusion, dizziness, exhaustion and shivering are signs of hypothermia.
  • Gray, white, or yellow skin discoloration, numbness, or waxy skins are symptoms of frostbite.
  • In case of overexposure to freezing temperatures, remove wet clothing and immediately warm the body with a blanket or warm fluids. Avoid caffeine or alcohol.


Jennifer Chase
Award Winning Author & Criminologist

Blog: http://authorjenniferchase.blogspot.com/
Website: http://jenniferchase.vpweb.com/
Crime Watch: http://emilystonecrimewatch.blogspot.com/
Book & Crime Talk: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/jennifer-chase