Emily’s Crime Watch – Tip #27 (Prediction)

An important factor in crime prevention is prediction. What does it really mean to you? How can you predict if you’re going to be a crime victim or not? How do you stay calm and objective? Can you actually take the fear out of the situation in order to see it more objectively?

According to Gavin De Becker author of The Gift of Fear, there are eleven predictions that are outlined in his book. These are interesting and thought-provoking concepts that everyone should take the time to consider in relating to crime and prediction, or even other personal situations.

1. Measurability of Outcome

What are your fears of the actual outcome in a certain situation? Do you see something terrible happening or do you think it’s a slight chance of happening? Predictions are less likely to happen if it’s easily measurable.

2. Vantage

It is a position that you can easily see the potential outcome. You can see the potential pre-incident indicators and context.

3. Imminence

From your view, are you predicting something that can happen immediately? According the author, some of our best predictive resources are applied when outcomes might occur as they are still meaningful to us.

4. Context

The situation is clear to the person making the predictions.

5. Pre-Incident Indicators

Learning to see the pre-incident indicators is the most important when dealing with prediction. Being in the position to see subtle or direct signs of potential dangers are significant in prediction.

6. Experience

Life experiences help with many things, including danger and prediction. Learn to use this wonderful skill.

7. Comparable Events

Can you consider or compare comparable events? This is also extremely important and co-mingles with experience.

8. Objectivity

This concept refers to staying objective enough to consider both sides of a prediction. In making a simple decision, there are several things to consider in any given situation. It’s important to be aware and objective during this time of prediction.

9. Investment

How invested are you in the predictive outcome? How much do you care about avoiding or exploiting the predictive outcome? Keep in mind that if you want the prediction to be correct or not.

10. Replicability

Is this a practical test that has been tested elsewhere? This applies to scientific experiments and not necessarily to human behavior. Still, it’s something to consider.

11. Knowledge

Do you have accurate knowledge of the prediction and situation? According to the author, if it’s not relevant and accurate then it can masquerade as wisdom instead.

When it comes to any potential crime situation, be aware, be objective, have a plan, and don’t let fear control your actions.

Check out this wonderful book:

The Gift of Fear
AND Other Survival Signals That Protect Us From Violence
By Gavin De Becker



Jennifer Chase
Award Winning Author & Criminologist

Blog: http://authorjenniferchase.blogspot.com/
Website: http://jenniferchase.vpweb.com/
Crime Watch: http://emilystonecrimewatch.blogspot.com/
Book & Crime Talk: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/jennifer-chase

Emily’s Crime Watch – Tip #15 - Out for the Night on the Town

There are times that we find ourselves going out at night for fun or a special celebration. You could be going to a restaurant or nightclub to meet friends. Or, you could be meeting someone for the first time in a public place.

It’s so important to remember that even though you’re in a pubic place, you still need to be alert and vigilant about what’s going on around you. This is true for both women and men.

Here are some simple safety tips to remember as you venture out into the nightlife for fun and entertainment:

. Be sure to tell someone, friend, neighbor, or family member where you’re going.

· DO NOT accept drinks from someone if you didn’t see the drink being prepared.

· DO NOT leave your drink unattended for ANY period of time -- EVER.

· DO NOT leave your purse or handbag unattended for ANY period of time.

· Carry a cell phone and always have enough money for a taxi ride home if necessary.

· If at all possible, arrange a buddy system with a friend to keep watch of one another.
· Know where all emergency and/or fire exits are in the building. Know your outside surroundings, such as streets, landmarks, etc.

· If you plan on drinking, ALWAYS have a designated driver or take a taxi.

· NEVER leave a bar or nightclub with stranger.

· If you’re being a harassed or if something doesn’t seem right to you don’t hesitate to report it to a security guard, nightclub bouncer, or the police.Most importantly…

Have a great time!

Just take a few moments to remember these tips before you venture out for some fun nightlife and pass these tips on to friends, family, and coworkers.


Jennifer Chase
Author & Criminologist

Emily’s Crime Watch – Tip #10 - Family and Home Safety

Emily wanted me to talk about a safety issue that many people have expressed their recent concerns - home security and what to do to keep your family and home safe from burglaries or home invasions.

There are two important aspects to remember for home security against potential break-ins: secure you home with proper hardware and electronics, and make sure that your entire family ALWAYS uses them correctly. Follow these guidelines with no exceptions.

Remember, if you come home and your house has been broken into, DO NOT GO INSIDE. Call the police immediately and wait for them to arrive, away from the residence or at a neighbor’s house.

There are 4 basic types of burglars and home invaders:

1. Professionals – these are the most sophisticated type of burglars or “cat burglars” and they generally are interested in businesses or extremely wealthy homes.

2. Opportunists – these are generally juvenile delinquents and pose a medium amount of danger.

3. Thrill-Seekers – these are also generally juvenile delinquents and pose a medium amount of danger. A higher danger potential are gang members, voyeurs, rapists, and murderers.

4. Drug Addicts – these are unskilled, unpredictable, individuals usually high on drugs. Basically, these types of individuals commit up to 90 percent of all burglaries and home invasions. Since they are desperate, irrational and prone to violence, they are very dangerous.

What simple precautions can you do to protect you and your family from being a victim of burglary or home invasions?

1. Install door reinforcements.
2. Install window reinforcements.
3. Install garage and yard reinforcements.
4. Install simple home electronics.
5. Install an alarm system.
6. Good neighbors: know your neighbors and watch out for one another.
7. Join or start a Neighborhood Watch Group.

These are simple preventative measures to keep in mind when you’re home:

1. Keep your windows and doors locked. About half of all home invasions happen because of unlocked doors or windows. If you’re outdoors gardening or at a neighbor’s house, remember to lock your door and carry a key with you. Be careful where you hide a house key and don’t make it obvious.

2. Never blindly open the door when someone knocks or rings the doorbell. This can be a burglar practice called a “push in”.

3. Avoid a “scam in” and never open the door to a stranger no matter what they say. These types of scam artists are master manipulators.

Pay attention to what goes on in your neighborhood. If you see anything that looks suspicious or looks out of place, report it to the local police immediately.

Be sure to talk to your children about home safety strategies and implement them into your daily routine.

For more information on how to keep your home and family safe from break-ins or home invasions, contact your local law enforcement agency or security specialist.


Jennifer Chase
Author & Criminologist

Emily’s Crime Watch – Tip #5

Emily Stone has some interesting ways that she fights back against crime and injustice in my novel Compulsion. She has been known to fight with punches and kicks, but she also has an uncanny ability to infer subtle clues in order to track down child pedophiles and killers.

What are victim’s options when suddenly confronted or threatened by a criminal predator?

Interestingly, there are guidelines that the FBI suggests if you are confronted in a crime situation along with a couple of other options that I’d like to share. Emily has exhibited all but one of these guidelines.

1. Posturing :If you show that you’re confident and would be a possible tough target, predators will generally wait for an easier target. Be aware of your surroundings and know where you are going. Never look unsure about your next move. This can be a signal to a would be predator. Stand up straight and look ahead and subtly around you. Confidence can carry you a long way to safety.

2. Outsmarting: Sometimes it may be possible to verbally diffuse a situation and maneuver yourself to an escape route. This requires a cool head and the ability to surmise a situation. This may not be the best technique for everyone, but it definitely has its place in some situations.

3. Fleeing: This technique falls under our primal reaction to danger as the “fight or flight” mechanism. It may seem obvious that you should run away from danger, but it might not be possible under certain conditions. Always look for an escape.

4. Surrendering: This technique may be implemented if you see an opportunity to escape at a later moment or fight.

5. Fighting: This has been referred to as “stun and run”. Basically you fight with everything you have in order to escape the situation.

It’s not always easy to anticipate what you would do in any situation, but you should be vigilant, aware, and confident in your daily activities. Emily wants everyone to be safe.

Take the thriller challenge and see if you can spot which technique Emily didn’t do in "Compulsion".

I would love to hear from you.

Interview with a California Police Sergeant About Crime and Public Safety

My novel "Compulsion" and "Dead Game" has raised some interesting questions about crime and public safety. The heroine, Emily Stone, tracks down pedophiles and serial killers, and then anonymously emails investigative information to the appropriate law enforcement agency.


It’s important to be aware of the types of crimes that are occurring in your own neighborhood and learn how to keep yourself and family safe. It’s also important to talk to your children about the potential risks and raise their awareness. Through education and awareness, we can address these crime issues to help assist law enforcement and to begin to reduce these crime risks and occurrences.

I have to admit that I had little, if any, interaction with law enforcement until I had a violent neighbor that continually threatened my life and then later conducted research for my novel. It definitely opened my eyes and perception of law enforcement and what police officers do every day.

I have a great guest that has stopped by to chat with me about crime and public safety here in California. I want to welcome Sergeant Mark Keyes from the Daly City Police Department.

Jennifer Chase: Sergeant Keyes, welcome and please tell us a little bit about yourself. How long have you been a police officer? What different areas have you worked within the police department?

Sgt. Mark Keyes: I’ve been a police officer with Daly City for the last 26 years. During that time I have worked as a K9 handler, SWAT team member and sniper, detective, and Senior Detective assigned to Robbery Homicide. Currently, I am a Patrol Division Sergeant, but I have been a Sergeant since 2001. As a Sergeant I have worked on Patrol, assigned to County Narcotics Task Force as a Special Agent Supervisor and Training Sergeant.

Jennifer Chase: What’s the most difficult part of your job? Has it changed over the years?

Sgt. Mark Keyes: The most difficult part of the job has to be the personnel issues in dealing with all of the different personalities in the department at one time is a chore, but we manage to get the job done regardless of what is going on in the officer’s lives.

My group is extremely talented and energetic. The job of police officer is a constantly evolving one. There is no one particular part of the job that is difficult as it is constantly changing. Probably the most challenging part of the job is the domestic violence situations. We are called to the scene of a situation that has been brewing over a long period of time and we are expected to resolve the issues in a relatively short period of time. It can be challenging and frustrating at the same time.

Jennifer Chase: What types of crimes do you see increasing in the community today?

Sgt. Mark Keyes: I see identity theft type of crimes growing as the economy sours. Also, property types of crimes such as burglary and auto theft are increasing.

Jennifer Chase: What are some of the concerns that you hear from residents regarding crime and public safety?

Sgt. Mark Keyes: People in general want to live in a community that is safe and free of those that would do them or their families harm, either to them personally or to their property. Gangs are an ever-increasing and ongoing problem, although my city has seen a decrease in this type of activity for the most part.

Jennifer Chase: Are there some general tips on public safety specifically for women in the home, workplace, and public locations?

Sgt. Mark Keyes: You should always be aware of your surroundings. People tend to get too wrapped up in their immediate actions and aren’t paying attention to those people that may be waiting to do them harm or steal their property. I’ve found that if you maintain a positive way of carrying yourself, head up looking around, eye contact with those you are suspicious of, and in general are confident, then you make yourself that much less of a target. At home make sure your doors and windows are locked at those times when you aren’t home or able to pay attention to things at the house (e.g. when you are sleeping). In the workplace, be aware of your surroundings and don’t be afraid to report co-workers who bother you and disrupt your ability to do what you’ve been hired to do.

Jennifer Chase: If a citizen witnesses a crime such as theft, burglary, or domestic violence, what are some of the things we can do after calling 911 to help to assist the police?

Sgt. Mark Keyes: It’s important to be a good witness, observe and report what you see to law enforcement. Don’t try to be a hero and do something that will get you hurt.

Jennifer Chase: For more violent crimes such as road rage, armed robbery, and shootings, what are some safety tips to remember? Once the incident is over, what are some important things to do to help the police in their investigation?

Sgt. Mark Keyes: Get as much information as you can about the violator and report your information to the local police. Again, don’t be a hero. Police officers are trained to handle these types of situations and you are not. We have many tools at our disposal to help us arrest the suspect and protect life and property. Most of the average citizens don’t have the training or know-how to deal with violent encounters, and those that do then become part of the problem. REPORT REPORT REPORT... I can’t stress that enough. If it is a violent encounter with a firearm then you need to get to a safe place and not get involved. Let the police deal with it and then when asked, if you saw anything, report what you saw to the investigating officers.

Jennifer Chase: And finally, I want to lighten the mood a bit. What is the funniest or most memorable call you were dispatched to in your career?

Sgt. Mark Keyes: One of the most memorable situations occurred when I was working K9. I had attempted to stop a subject wanted for a felony warrant. The subject took off running and I sent my police service dog after him. After the dog got him and as I was trying to handcuff him, the suspect punched me in the shoulder and took off running again. I sent my dog after him again and the dog grabbed him by the back of his jeans near his butt, as the subject kept running his pants were pulled down to his ankles by my dog. The suspect wasn’t wearing any underwear and it reminded me of the Coppertone girl in the ads, except this was a felony suspect who assaulted me and he was trying to get away from my dog with his pants down around his ankles with his butt showing. He didn’t get very far!

Jennifer Chase: You gotta love those K9 partners!! Thank you Sergeant Keyes for taking time out of your busy schedule to talk to me about crime and public safety. I appreciate your candid answers and you’ve provided us with some great information.

It is important to remember that you need to report everything that you’ve witnessed about a crime to the police investigators. It is also important to get involved, but first and foremost, keep yourself safe and let law enforcement handle the dangerous situations. I know that I speak for many citizens, we truly appreciate the hard work from all of the men and women of law enforcement and their perseverance to help keep our communities and families safe.

If you have any crime concerns, talk to a local police officer or community services officer. I would suggest to anyone that is interested in becoming more involved in crime prevention and safety is to visit your local city police department or county sheriff’s department for more information. You can also access more information and contact numbers online at police department websites.


Jennifer Chase
Author &and Criminologist

Twitter: Thillernovel
Facebook Fan Page

Emily’s Crime Watch – Tip #4

There are both positive and negative benefits for children using the Internet. The online world can offer children an experience that is both educational and rewarding, which can lead to a higher school performance and increase future job potential. Unfortunately, there is pornography and child predators lurking out there in the online world too.

Parents and guardians need to be vigilant about keeping children safe when they are using the Internet for browsing the Web, sending and receiving email, and using chat rooms.

Emily suggests a few things that parents and guardians can do to help ensure child safety on the Internet.

1.Become an Advocate:

Contact your local Internet Service Provider if you see any material (visual or written) or other practices that you don’t like that is made available to children on the Internet. Be proactive in what children are viewing and don’t be afraid to voice your concerns and opinions.

2.Stay Informed:

Keep yourself informed about parental control tools that can help to keep your child safe on the Internet. Be sure to know what the parental tools can and can’t do. Find out what children are learning and viewing through community and school Web sites.

3.Get Involved:

Spend time with your children when they are on the computer, whether it’s at home, the library, or any other computer center in your community. Take the time to play fun and educational games with your children. It’s important to be involved in your child’s online life and include them in your own online practices. This will be the best insurance for your child’s safety.

4.Learn about the Internet:

Learn everything you can about the Internet. If you’re a novice or a more skilled computer user, take advantage of learning more about the Internet at your local library, community center, or local training classes.

The bottom line is that the Internet has many positive aspects in learning, job training, and social networking. There are just a few things to be aware of so that your children can be safe and enjoy the online experience.

Emily wants all children to be safe and enjoy everything that the Internet has to offer.